Beast or Bust?: Week 3
Welcome back to “Beast or Bust?”, the weekly column in which I, BigRedPoet, offer my predictions for the following week’s NFL games in the hope that you can use this information to improve your fantasy football team.
For the purposes of this feature, I will make reference to Yahoo’s projected statistics. Luckily, I don’t expect statistics to vary much between fantasy football sites, so non-Yahoo users aren’t left out in the cold. Your “Beast” will be a player who I expect to exceed his projections by at least 5 points, and your “Bust” will be a player who I predict will come up at least 5 points short of what’s expected. I’ll also toss in an “OMG” pick each week; this will be a player who’s projected to score less than 5 points, and who will rise from relative obscurity to deliver an unexpected and outstanding performance. If the NFL slate for the week is particularly juicy, I might predict multiple players in any or all of those categories.
Week 3 Beast: Bears RB Matt Forte
It’s time for Forte to break out. I know he carried the ball 25 times for just 55 yards in week 1, and I saw that he gained a paltry 29 yards on 13 carries in week 2. Before anyone jumps off the bandwagon, we should all take a look at the defenses he ran against in those games, Green Bay and (God forbid) Pittsburgh. They’re both pretty solid against the run. Also, look back at last season. Forte totaled 1238 yards and 8 touchdowns. This guy is good. Projected for just 13.75 points this week, equal to 137 combined yards or 77 combined yards and a touchdown, I think he’ll exceed expectations considerably. After all, Frank Gore ran for 207 yards and two touchdowns last week against Forte’s week 3 opponent, the Seahawks.
- My prediction: 110 yards, 2 touchdowns
Week 3 Bust: Giants WR Mario Manningham
Manningham caught 10 passes for 150 yards and a touchdown last week. Six million fantasy football players immediately ran out and added him to their rosters. I’m not buying it. Look back at his totals from week 1: 3 catches for 58 yards and a touchdown. Now look back at his totals for ALL of last season combined: 4 catches for 26 yards and zero touchdowns. Now, let’s play Q&A. Is Manningham stepping up in the Giants’ offense and helping to fill the role vacated by 50 Cent…err…Plaxico Burress? Indeed, he is. Does he have any kind of history to establish him as a go-to guy for Manning? No. Are the Giants a pass-heavy team? Certainly not. Will he score the 12.75 points that are projected for him this week? Not a chance. The Giants’ week 3 opponent, Tampa Bay, is hardly a defensive powerhouse, and I’m guessing that the G-Men will return to their base strategy of running the ball and working the clock.
Note: I’m disagreeing with other “experts,” here. Who do you trust?
- My prediction: 65 yards, no touchdowns
Week 3 OMG: Broncos WR Eddie Royal
Like Forte, Eddie Royal has started slowly this year. He’s getting used to a new quarterback, and the team is dealing with the hassle of prima donna Brandon Marshall. Even so, it’s time for Royal to get back on his game. The Raiders have the best cornerback in the league in Nnamdi Asomugha (that’s NOM-dee AH-sum-WAH), but he can’t cover both Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall. There will be an open receiver someplace. Royal posted fantastic numbers in his rookie campaign last season, and he’s had several weeks to perfect his timing with new Broncos QB Kyle Orton. I think it’s time to return to the spotlight. Projected for just 4.06 points, Royal will step up and contribute considerably to the Broncos’ offense.
- My prediction: 85 yards, no touchdowns
I’m all about accountability. Each week, after I offer my predictions, I’ll take credit for the previous week’s success and/or eat crow over last week’s dismal failure.
Week 2 Picks
- Beast: Panthers RB DeAngelo Williams
- Projection: 12.14
- Actual: 15.1 points
Damn. Williams looked pretty good against the Falcons, but he didn’t put on the clinic I hoped for. He exceeded his projections by 3 points, but I don’t win until 5. I really want to take credit, here, but rules are rules. I didn’t make any allowances for partial credit, so…I lose.
- Bust: Cowboys RB Marion Barber
- Projection: 11.25 points
- Actual: 21.5 points
Well, look who made BRP look stupid. I guess Barber should come with a fine-print warning, like the commercials for investment funds: “Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns.” Barber had a huge game against the Giants. I’m still shocked. I lose.
- OMG: Saints WR Devery Henderson
- Projection: 4.43 points
- Actual: 7.1 points
Henderson didn’t exactly wreck shop in week 2, but he wasn’t as transparent as his projections predicted, either. His 71 yards were a significant contribution to the Saints’ offense, and his 7.1 points exceeded the contributions of star receivers like T.J. Who’s-Yo-Mama, Hines Ward, and Bernard Berrian. I win.
- BRP’s Win/Loss Ratio: 3/3
