The Daily Procrastinator

Welcome back to “Beast or Bust?”, the weekly column in which I, BigRedPoet, offer my predictions for the following week’s NFL games in the hope that you can use this information to improve your fantasy football team.

For the purposes of this feature, I will make reference to Yahoo’s projected statistics. Luckily, I don’t expect statistics to vary much between fantasy football sites, so non-Yahoo users aren’t left out in the cold. Your “Beast” will be a player who I expect to exceed his projections by at least 5 points, and your “Bust” will be a player who I predict will come up at least 5 points short of what’s expected. I’ll also toss in an “OMG” pick each week; this will be a player who’s projected to score less than 5 points, and who will rise from relative obscurity to deliver an unexpected and outstanding performance. If the NFL slate for the week is particularly juicy, I might predict multiple players in any or all of those categories.

Week 3 Beast: Bears RB Matt Forte

It’s time for Forte to break out. I know he carried the ball 25 times for just 55 yards in week 1, and I saw that he gained a paltry 29 yards on 13 carries in week 2. Before anyone jumps off the bandwagon, we should all take a look at the defenses he ran against in those games, Green Bay and (God forbid) Pittsburgh. They’re both pretty solid against the run. Also, look back at last season. Forte totaled 1238 yards and 8 touchdowns. This guy is good. Projected for just 13.75 points this week, equal to 137 combined yards or 77 combined yards and a touchdown, I think he’ll exceed expectations considerably. After all, Frank Gore ran for 207 yards and two touchdowns last week against Forte’s week 3 opponent, the Seahawks.

• My prediction: 110 yards, 2 touchdowns

Week 3 Bust: Giants WR Mario Manningham

Manningham caught 10 passes for 150 yards and a touchdown last week. Six million fantasy football players immediately ran out and added him to their rosters. I’m not buying it. Look back at his totals from week 1: 3 catches for 58 yards and a touchdown. Now look back at his totals for ALL of last season combined: 4 catches for 26 yards and zero touchdowns. Now, let’s play Q&A. Is Manningham stepping up in the Giants’ offense and helping to fill the role vacated by 50 Cent…err…Plaxico Burress? Indeed, he is. Does he have any kind of history to establish him as a go-to guy for Manning? No. Are the Giants a pass-heavy team? Certainly not. Will he score the 12.75 points that are projected for him this week? Not a chance. The Giants’ week 3 opponent, Tampa Bay, is hardly a defensive powerhouse, and I’m guessing that the G-Men will return to their base strategy of running the ball and working the clock.

Note: I’m disagreeing with other “experts,” here. Who do you trust?

• My prediction: 65 yards, no touchdowns

Week 3 OMG: Broncos WR Eddie Royal

Like Forte, Eddie Royal has started slowly this year. He’s getting used to a new quarterback, and the team is dealing with the hassle of prima donna Brandon Marshall. Even so, it’s time for Royal to get back on his game. The Raiders have the best cornerback in the league in Nnamdi Asomugha (that’s NOM-dee AH-sum-WAH), but he can’t cover both Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall. There will be an open receiver someplace. Royal posted fantastic numbers in his rookie campaign last season, and he’s had several weeks to perfect his timing with new Broncos QB Kyle Orton. I think it’s time to return to the spotlight. Projected for just 4.06 points, Royal will step up and contribute considerably to the Broncos’ offense.

• My prediction: 85 yards, no touchdowns

I’m all about accountability. Each week, after I offer my predictions, I’ll take credit for the previous week’s success and/or eat crow over last week’s dismal failure.

Week 2 Picks

• Beast: Panthers RB DeAngelo Williams
• Projection: 12.14
• Actual: 15.1 points

Damn. Williams looked pretty good against the Falcons, but he didn’t put on the clinic I hoped for. He exceeded his projections by 3 points, but I don’t win until 5. I really want to take credit, here, but rules are rules. I didn’t make any allowances for partial credit, so…I lose.

• Bust: Cowboys RB Marion Barber
• Projection: 11.25 points
• Actual: 21.5 points

Well, look who made BRP look stupid. I guess Barber should come with a fine-print warning, like the commercials for investment funds: “Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns.” Barber had a huge game against the Giants. I’m still shocked. I lose.

• OMG: Saints WR Devery Henderson
• Projection: 4.43 points
• Actual: 7.1 points

Henderson didn’t exactly wreck shop in week 2, but he wasn’t as transparent as his projections predicted, either. His 71 yards were a significant contribution to the Saints’ offense, and his 7.1 points exceeded the contributions of star receivers like T.J. Who’s-Yo-Mama, Hines Ward, and Bernard Berrian. I win.

• BRP’s Win/Loss Ratio: 3/3

Welcome back to “Beast or Bust?”, the weekly column in which I, BigRedPoet, offer my predictions for the following week’s NFL games in the hope that you can use this information to improve your fantasy football team.

For the purposes of this feature, I will make reference to Yahoo’s projected statistics. Luckily, I don’t expect statistics to vary much between fantasy football sites, so non-Yahoo users aren’t left out in the cold. Your “Beast” will be a player who I expect to exceed his projections by at least 5 points, and your “Bust” will be a player who I predict will come up at least 5 points short of what’s expected. I’ll also toss in an “OMG” pick each week; this will be a player who’s projected to score less than 5 points, and who will rise from relative obscurity to deliver an unexpected and outstanding performance. If the NFL slate for the week is particularly juicy, I might predict multiple players in any or all of those categories.

Week 2 Beast: Panthers RB DeAngelo Williams

Last year, DeAngelo Williams was an absolute BEAST in the second half of the season, and he carried many fantasy owners into the postseason. He looks to return to those days in week 2. Williams picked up just 37 yards on 14 carries in week one, but that was against an outstanding Eagles DEF. This week, he’ll bounce back against the Falcons. The Atlanta DEF allowed 96 yards on 22 carries in week 1, for an average of 4.4 YPC. If there’s any back in the league who can turn a short gain into a touchdown in the blink of an eye, it’s Williams (or Adrian Peterson). Yahoo projects him to post 12.14 points this week, which would require either 121 combined yards or 61 combined yards and a touchdown. With Delhomme struggling badly at QB and Jonathan Stewart still on the mend, look for DeAngelo to exceed his projections by a mile.

• My Prediction: 90 total yards, 2 TDs

Week 2 Bust: Cowboys RB Marion Barber

I’m going out on a limb, here. I’m also risking the wrath of FlashCap. Yahoo predicts that Barber will score 11.25 points this week, but I just don’t think it’s going to happen. For starters, he’s running against a perennial defensive powerhouse in the New York Giants. In two games against the Cowboys last year, the G-Men held Barber to 56 yards on 26 carries. Ouch. Additionally, Tony Romo was slinging the ball pretty well last week (at least in the second half), and it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll stop. The Cowboys’ change-of-pace back Felix Jones is bad news for Barber, too. Last week, he swiped 6 carries out of Barber’s workload. By theorizing that Barber will gain 5 full points less than his projected 11.25, I’m betting on a pretty miserable day. I might get burned, but I’m going with my gut. FlashCap is welcome to pen a rebuttal.

• My Prediction: 45 yards, no TDs

Week 2 OMG: New Orleans WR Devery Henderson

Henderson is projected for just 4.43 points in week 2, which assumes that he’ll gain 44 yards and not score a touchdown. After watching the Saints in week 1, I’m not willing to predict ANY of their WRs for such a lowly week. Henderson led the team with 103 yards receiving on Sunday, and he also found the end zone. While this week’s opponent, the Eagles, is vastly more powerful on defense than the Lions that Henderson faced in week 1, I still think he can have a good day at WR. With Brees absolutely on fire, I’d start Henderson with confidence.

• My Prediction: 50 yards, 1 TD

I’m all about accountability. Each week, after I offer my predictions, I’ll take credit for the previous week’s success and/or eat crow over last week’s dismal failure.

Week 1 Picks

• Beast: 49ers RB Frank Gore
• Projection: 11.72 points
• Actual: 16.8 points

It wasn’t pretty, but Gore took care of business. He managed just 30 yards on 22 carries, but he crossed the goal line on one of them. The big back also caught 3 passes for 18 yards and another touchdown. In the end, only the fantasy points count. I said he’d exceed his projection by at least 5, and he proved me right. He gained 5.08 points more than Yahoo predicted. I win.

• Bust: Steelers RB Willie Parker
• Projection: 12.94 points
• Actual: 2.4 points

Parker gained just 19 yards on 13 carries in week 1. While his yards-per-carry average is similar to Gore’s, he didn’t manage to stagger across the goal line. He also managed to catch one pass for 5 yards. Overall, Parker fell short of his projection by 10.54 points. I win again.

• OMG: Browns WR Mike Furrey
• Projection: 3.2 points
• Actual: 2.8 points

The Browns’ offense didn’t exactly blow up against the Vikings in week 1. Although Furrey got a share of looks and caught four passes, they were all for relatively short gains, and he totaled just 28 yards on the day. I consider him a decent play heading forward, but he didn’t deliver the “unexpected and outstanding performance” I had hoped for. I lose.

• BRP’s Win/Loss Ratio: 2/1