Beast or Bust?: Week 4
Welcome back to “Beast or Bust?”, the weekly column in which I, BigRedPoet, offer my predictions for the following week’s NFL games in the hope that you can use this information to improve your fantasy football team.
For the purposes of this feature, I will make reference to Yahoo’s projected statistics. Luckily, I don’t expect statistics to vary much between fantasy football sites, so non-Yahoo users aren’t left out in the cold. Your “Beast” will be a player who I expect to exceed his projections by at least 5 points, and your “Bust” will be a player who I predict will come up at least 5 points short of what’s expected. I’ll also toss in an “OMG” pick each week; this will be a player who’s projected to score less than 5 points, and who will rise from relative obscurity to deliver an unexpected and outstanding performance. If the NFL slate for the week is particularly juicy, I might predict multiple players in any or all of those categories.
Week 4 Beast: Bengals RB Cedric Benson
Last year (and the year before, and the year before that) it looked like Benson’s beastly college career just didn’t translate into the NFL. In 2009, though, the Coolio lookalike is running like a new man. So far, he’s posted 76 yards and a TD against Denver, 141 yards against Green Bay, and 76 yards and a TD against Pittsburgh. Those are three pretty stout defenses. Benson’s week 4 opponent, Cleveland, is decidedly not stout. In fact, they’re giving up 184 yards per game to opposing RBs this season. They’ve given up 8 rushing TDs in three weeks. Benson is the only guy carrying the ball in Cincinati. He’s going to blow up against the Browns. Yahoo projects 15.05 points, which would require either 150 total yards or 90 total yards and a touchdown. I would never have said this in past years, but I think Benson can outscore those numbers considerably.
My prediction: 120 yards, 2 touchdowns
Bonus Beast: 49ers RB Glen Coffee
He’s projected for 13.03, but he’s going to TORCH the Rams. ‘Nuff said.
(Edit: Look here. Evans is stealin’ my ideas. I wrote it first!)
Week 4 Bust: Jets RB Thomas Jones
In week 1, Jones blew up against the Texans, and fantasy football owners swooned with visions that he was the same back who kicked some serious ass in 2008. In the two weeks since, though, he’s been a genuine dud. He carried 14 times for 54 yards in week 2 (3.9 average), and earned just 20 yards on 14 carries in week 3 (1.4 average). Ouch. This week, the Jets face New Orleans. The Saints are almost certain to open up a huge lead early, and the Jets will be forced to throw the ball in an effort to keep up. To complicate matters, Jones is splitting carries with Leon Washington, who has looked pretty impressive, averaging 4.0 yards per carry on the season. Between the Jets’ need to throw, Jones’ loathsome performances in the past couple weeks, and Leon Washington’s intrusion, I just don’t trust Thomas Jones to earn the 9.2 points Yahoo is projecting for him. Look for him to crash and burn.
My prediction: 40 yards, no touchdowns
Week 4 OMG: Bears WR Earl Bennett
Earl Bennett is quietly having a strong season in the Bears’ WR corps. He’s racked up 13 receptions (tied for team lead) for 168 yards (second on the team). He’s established himself as a reliable target for Cutler. As the Bears face the miserable Lions this weekend, Bennett will post another handful of receptions. I also think he’ll find the end zone for the first time this year. The Detroit defense is likely to focus heavily on Devin Hester, who is Cutler’s primary downfield threat, and Bennett will be able to find holes in the coverage. Projected for just 4.77 points, Bennett will be a pleasant surprise in week 4.
My prediction: 60 yards, 1 touchdown
I’m all about accountability. Each week, after I offer my predictions, I’ll take credit for the previous week’s success and/or eat crow over last week’s dismal failure.
Week 3 Picks
- Beast: Matt Forte
- Projected Score: 13.75
- Actual Score: 10.6
Well. I don’t know what to say here except that I’m genuinely surprised. Forte’s sophomore slump appears to be more drastic than I’d imagined. He’s carried 59 times for 150 yards on the season, which gives him an average of 2.5 yards per carry. He hasn’t scored a touchdown yet, either. I humbly apologize to any fantasy owner who took my advice and placed faith in Forte to break out against the wimpy Seahawks defense. I lose.
- Bust: Mario Manningham
- Projected Score: 12.75
- Actual Score: 5.5
My prediction for Manningham was 65 yards and no touchdowns. It turns out that he decided to further emphasize his Bust status by gaining just 55 yards. He may blow up occasionally, but this guy is not an every-week auto start. I win.
- OMG: Eddie Royal
- Projected Score: 4.06
- Actual Score: 0.4
Damn. I felt really good about Royal’s chances to come to life. While this pick results in a resounding loss for me, I’m not giving up on Royal. In fact, one owner in my league *coughFlashCapcough* dropped him out of spite, and I’ve picked him up and plan to start him in week 4. He’s too good to stay dormant.
- BRP’s win/loss ratio: 4/5
