The Daily Procrastinator

Welcome back to “Beast or Bust?”, the weekly column in which I, BigRedPoet, offer my predictions for the following week’s NFL games in the hope that you can use this information to improve your fantasy football team.

For the purposes of this feature, I will make reference to Yahoo’s projected statistics. Luckily, I don’t expect statistics to vary much between fantasy football sites, so non-Yahoo users aren’t left out in the cold. Your “Beast” will be a player who I expect to exceed his projections by at least 5 points, and your “Bust” will be a player who I predict will come up at least 5 points short of what’s expected. I’ll also toss in an “OMG” pick each week; this will be a player who’s projected to score less than 5 points, and who will rise from relative obscurity to deliver an unexpected and outstanding performance. If the NFL slate for the week is particularly juicy, I might predict multiple players in any or all of those categories.

As it turns out, I’m finding that 5 points is a REALLY big margin of difference between the projections and these guys’ actual performances. This is difficult! My win/loss ratio is starting to look laughable. Think you can do better? I challenge you to post comments with your own beast, bust, and OMG.

Week 5 Beast: Vikings WR Bernard Berrian

Berrian’s receptions and yards have been awfully consistent this year. He went 4/81, 6/46, 4/56, and 6/75 and a TD in the fist four weeks of the season. Last week, in his first contest againt the Packers, Vikings QB Favre stepped up his game to a level I haven’t seen from him in a long long time, completing 24 of 31 for 271 yards and 3 TDs. It was a pretty inspired performance, and all over the country people suddenly realized that while, yes, this is still AP’s team, the passing game can work, too. The Vikings face the pathetic defense of the Rams this week, and I expect Favre to have another big day. One of the beneficiaries of his success will be downfield threat Bernard Berrian. Yahoo projects just 7.0 points for Berrian, which equals 70 total yards or 10 total yards and a touchdown. Even though AP is going to return to his role of carrying this team on his back, Favre will go downfield when the Rams put about ten guys in the box.

My prediction: 5 catches, 85 yards, 1 TD 

Week 5 Bust: Cardinals RB Tim Hightower

Several factors lead me to believe that Hightower is fully benchable this week. First of all, he’s only had one decent game this year. Against San Francisco in week 1 and Indy in week 3, he was absolutely shut down, gaining a combined 37 yards on a combined 17 carries. Granted, he rushes against the Texans in week 5, and the Texans’ run defense is pretty miserable. However, that leads me to reason number two: the Texans have a remarkably potent offense, as do the Cardinals. This game is going to be a shootout, and running backs generally don’t fare too well in such games. Warner, Fitz, and Boldin could have huge days. Heck, Steve Breaston and Jerheme Urban might even post semi-useful fantasy stats, but I’m betting Hightower gets left out in the cold. One of his main strengths is catching the ball out of the backfield, in which case he becomes the linebackers’ problem more than the defensive line’s. It just so happens that (reason three) the Texans have a pretty solid group of linebackers, including standout rookie Brian Cushing and every-year beast DeMeco Ryans. Although Yahoo is predicting 11.71 points for Hightower, equal to 117 total yards or 51 total yards and a touchdown, I just don’t see it happening.

My prediction: 65 yards rushing, no TDs

Week 5 OMG:Browns WR Mohamed Massoquoi

The Browns have finally parted ways with Braylon “Banana Hands” Edwards, trading him to the Jets for “wide receiver Chansi Stuckey, linebacker Jason Trusnik and two undisclosed draft choices,” according to online reports. Braylon is a beast in the raw talent department, but he’s always been a bit of a bust in the area of refined skills. Here’s hoping New York treats him well. Meanwhile, back in the MidWest, Mohamed Massaquoi just rose to the top of Cleveland’s depth chart. While the teams roster lists exactly zero talented quarterbacks, somebody has to catch the ball once in a while. He caught just one pass in each of his first two games of the season, but he showed off his potentially eye-popping talent in week 4, catching 8 passes for 148 yards. The Browns face Buffalo in week 5, and the Bills are giving up 226 passing yards per game this season, surrendering 6 touchdowns through the air so far. Projected for just 2.97 fantasy points, equal to just under 30 total yards, Massaquoi will prove the Yahoo prognosticators wrong.

My prediction: 5 catches, 105 yards, 1 TD 

I’m all about accountability. Each week, after I offer my predictions, I’ll take credit for the previous week’s success and/or eat crow over last week’s dismal failure.

Week 4 Picks

• Beast: Cedric Benson
• Projected Score: 15.05
• Actual Score: 8.6

Some people have argued that Cedric Benson is physically incapable of being a reliable fantasy RB option. Until this week, I thought ol’ Ced was proving them wrong in 2009. Then he choked against the Bengals. I was surprised, but I guess I shouldn’t have been. Choking at inopportune moments is the defintion of “unreliable,” right? I lose.

• Bust: Thomas Jones
• Projected Score: 9.2
• Actual Score: 10.8

I predicted Jones for 40 yards and no touchdowns. Unfortunately, he managed 48 yards (I was close!) but also managed to stumble across the goal line. It was an uninspiring performance, but I still lose.

• OMG: Earl Bennett
• Projected Score: 4.77
• Actual Score: 3.2

Huh. This makes three in a row. I may need to give up this prognistication business. Apparently, I don’t have the gift. This should be obvious, as I’m 0-4 in one of my fantasy leagues. Of course, I’m 4-0 in the other, so I may keep plugging along.

BRP’s win/loss ratio: 4/8