Beast or Bust?: Week 7
Welcome back to “Beast or Bust?”, the weekly column in which I, BigRedPoet, offer my predictions for the following week’s NFL games in the hope that you can use this information to improve your fantasy football team.
For the purposes of this feature, I will make reference to Yahoo’s projected statistics. Luckily, I don’t expect statistics to vary much between fantasy football sites, so non-Yahoo users aren’t left out in the cold. Your “Beast” will be a player who I expect to exceed his projections by at least 5 points, and your “Bust” will be a player who I predict will come up at least 5 points short of what’s expected. I’ll also toss in an “OMG” pick each week; this will be a player who’s projected to score less than 5 points, and who will rise from relative obscurity to deliver an unexpected and outstanding performance. If the NFL slate for the week is particularly juicy, I might predict multiple players in any or all of those categories.
As it turns out, I’m finding that 5 points is a REALLY big margin of difference between the projections and these guys’ actual performances. This is difficult! My win/loss ratio is starting to look laughable. Think you can do better? I challenge you to post comments with your own beast, bust, and OMG.
Week 7 Beast: 49ers WR Michael Crabtree
Well, look who decided to accept the paltry sum of 17 million dollars (at the very least, and 40 million at best) to finally come play some football. Even though I think his holdout was one of the premiere bonehead moves of the decade, I can’t deny that Michael Crabtree is a beast. According to official reports, Crabtree is going to be on the field often during the 49ers’ week 7 game, and there’s a “strong possibility” that he will start. I wouldn’t be surprised, considering that the other WR options in San Francisco are Isaac “Grandpa” Bruce and Josh “Who?” Morgan. Projected for just 6.25 points, equal to 62 total yards, Crabtree possesses the talents to eclipse those numbers by a mile, particularly against Houston’s fairly user-friendly defense. This will be Crabtree’s first NFL game, and trusting a total greenhorn is always a risk, but I see enough upside here to start him at WR3 in just about any league.
My Prediction: 80 yards, 1 touchdown
Week 7 Bust: Panthers WR Steve Smith
That’s right. I’m calling out former monster Steve Smith of the Carolina Panthers, even though he’s only projected for 7.6 points, to fall short of his projections by five. I don’t think he’s gonna do jack in week 7. Take a look at the situation: 1) Jake Delhomme is terrible. He’s a turnover machine. To quote Brad Evans, I’ve turned “Delhommophobic.” 2) Carolina faces Buffalo in week 7, a team that surrenders a league-worst 181.2 yards per game rushing. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are going to carry the ball constantly, particularly since Dehomme sucks. 3) The entire defensive backfield will be focused on shutting Smith down. Carolina’s only other WR is Muhsin Muhammad, who I trust about as far as Delhomme can throw. 4) Smith is at odds with his team, sayin after last week’s game that he “no longer feels like an asset” to the Panthers. That can’t be good. Smith’s week is doomed, procrastinators.
My Prediction: 2 catches, 20 yards, no touchdowns
Week 7 OMG: Vikings WR Sidney Rice
We all know that the Vikings are still Adrian Peterson’s team, but the addition of Favre has breathed considerable life back into the Minnesota passing game. Rice is an emerging young talent who’s posted a couple of outstanding stat lines this season, particularly last week, as he caught 6 passes for 176 yards. I don’t think he’s likely to repeat that monster performance this week, but he’s in a position to score pretty well. The Vikings are likely to go to the air often against the Steelers, who are awfully stout against the run. Projected for just 5.04, equal to 50 total yards, Rice will prove useful to fantasy owners with the guts to start him.
My prediction: 70 yards, 1 touchdown
I’m all about accountability. Each week, after I offer my predictions, I’ll take credit for the previous week’s success and/or eat crow over last week’s dismal failure.
Week 6 Picks
- Beast: Nate Burleson
- Projected Score: 9.79
- Actual Score: 4.0
Allow me to quote rotowire.com: Seattle had a dreadful game offensively, and Burleson had a season-low five targets. It’s all the more disappointing considering the Seahawks were facing the league’s worst pass defense. The conditions were right. The Seahawks blew it. I lose.
- Bust: Clinton Portis
- Projected Score: 14.27
- Actual Score: 10.4
At this point, I’m a victim to my own rules. Portis did underperform, but not as miserably as I needed him to in order to fulfill my “five points under” requirement. I REALLY want partial credit, here. I didn’t make provisions for that, though. I lose. Crap.
- OMG: Kellen Winslow
- Projected Score: 4.95
- Actual Score: 2.9
Huh. I guess catching everything in his general vicinity and scoring two touchdowns in week 5 isn’t enough to make the Bucs trust Winslow with a few targets in week 6. I’m baffled. I lose.
BRP’s win/loss ratio: 4/14
