The Daily Procrastinator

Welcome back to “Beast or Bust?”, the weekly column in which I, BigRedPoet, offer my predictions for the following week’s NFL games in the hope that you can use this information to improve your fantasy football team.

For the purposes of this feature, I will make reference to Yahoo’s projected statistics. Luckily, I don’t expect statistics to vary much between fantasy football sites, so non-Yahoo users aren’t left out in the cold. Your “Beast” will be a player who I expect to exceed his projections by at least 5 points, and your “Bust” will be a player who I predict will come up at least 5 points short of what’s expected. I’ll also toss in an “OMG” pick each week; this will be a player who’s projected to score less than 5 points, and who will rise from relative obscurity to deliver an unexpected and outstanding performance. If the NFL slate for the week is particularly juicy, I might predict multiple players in any or all of those categories.

As it turns out, I’m finding that 5 points is a REALLY big margin of difference between the projections and these guys’ actual performances. This is difficult! My win/loss ratio is starting to look laughable. Think you can do better? I challenge you to post comments with your own beast, bust, and OMG.

Week 6 Beast: Seahawks WR Nate Burleson

Burleson has been a bit sketchy so far this season, to say the least. In fact, according to Yahoo, he’s only owned in 80% of leagues. If he’s a free agent in your league, go add him. Now. Burleson’s poor performances in the early weeks had a name: Seneca Wallace. With Seahawks starting QB Matt Hasselbeck sidelined by injury, the ‘Hawks were forced to start Wallace, who just isn’t good. Last week, being targeted by a healthy Hasselbeck, Burleson caught 6 passes for 98 yards and two touchdowns. This week, in The Batttle Of The Birds, the Seahawks face the Cardinals, who have the league’s worst pass defense. Expect Burleson to have another huge game. Projected for just 9.79 points, equal to 97 total yards or 37 total yards and a touchdown, Burleson is poised to defy expectations.

My prediction: 120 yards, 1-2 touchdowns

Bonus Beast: Eagles TE Brent Celek

Week 6 Bust: Redskins RB Clinton Portis

Sure, Portis had a good week last week, posting 74 yards and two touchdowns. Let’s look back into weeks 1-4, though. He scored 7.2, 8.8, 4.8, and 9.8 points in the season’s first four contests. This week, Yahoo is projecting Portis for 14.27 points against the Chiefs, which would require 142 total yards or 82 yards and a touchdown. Granted, the Chiefs suck. On the other hand, Portis is older than God, and he’s suffering from the cumulative effects of various injuries. The most recent is a calf issue which has him listed on this week’s injury report and participating only partially in practice. Adding to my skepticism, the Chiefs’ front line is banged up this week, and they’ll be starting some second-stringers. I just don’t trust this situation. Call it a hunch. Call it his performance early this season. Call it whatever you want, but make sure you put Portis on the bench this week.

My prediction: 75 yards, no touchdowns

Week 6 OMG: Buccaneers TE Kellen Winslow

I know that Winslow has really only had one big week this season. I also know that the Bucs, as a general rule, are bad. On the other hand, I know that Kellen Winslow has a ton and a half of raw talent, and his week 6 opponent, Carolina, although they’re awfully good at shutting down wide receivers, has major struggles covering tight ends. Last week, Winslow hauled in 9 catches for 102 yards and two touchdowns. Quarterback Josh Johnson MUST have noticed. On a team where the only other reliable receiver is Antonio Bryant, who’s  currently hobbled by knee issues, Winslow is by far the most likely Bucs player to post useful fantasy numbers in week 6. While he’s projected for 4.95 points, equal to just 49 total yards, I think the can have a considerably better day as Johnson’s go-to guy.

My prediction: 65 yards, 1 touchdown

I’m all about accountability. Each week, after I offer my predictions, I’ll take credit for the previous week’s success and/or eat crow over last week’s dismal failure.

Week 5 Picks

• Beast: Bernard Berrian
• Projected Score: 7.0
• Actual Score: 3.9

What can I say? I’m starting to think that being chosen as BRP’s Beast is the kiss of death. It’s like the Best New Artist grammy or the cover of Madden. I lose.

• Bust: Tim Hightower
• Projected Score: 11.71
• Actual Score: 10.7

Sigh. Contrary to the “BRP Beast Effect,” it seems that being chosen as the Bust virtually assures a player of having a decent week. I lose. Again.

• OMG: Mohamed Massaquoi
• Projected Score: 2.97
• Actual Score: 1.6

Are you still reading my predictions under the illusion that they’re going to help you? If so, I’m afraid that you might need to think twice about where you get your fantasy advice. I lose. Again. Again.

BRP’s win/loss ratio: 4/11