The Daily Procrastinator

Greetings, procrastinators! After a lengthy summer absence, I’ve returned to The Daily Procrastinator. I hope each of you shirked your responsibilities effectively while I was away shirking mine.

Welcome to the first-ever edition of “Beast or Bust?”, a weekly feature in which I, Big Red Poet, will offer some predictions, advice, and general thoughts about the week’s upcoming NFL games. My hope is that you’ll be able to use this advice to benefit your fantasy football team.

For the purposes of this feature, I will make reference to Yahoo’s projected statistics. Luckily, I don’t expect statistics to vary much between fantasy football sites, so non-Yahoo users aren’t left out in the cold. Your “Beast” will be a player who I expect to exceed his projections by at least 5 points, and your “Bust” will be a player who I predict will come up at least 5 points short of what’s expected. I’ll also toss in an “OMG” pick each week; this will be a player who will rise from relative obscurity to deliver an unexpected and outstanding performance. If the NFL slate for the week is particularly juicy, I might predict multiple players in any or all of those categories.

Week 1 Beast:49ers RB Frank Gore

Gore’s projections for this week theorize that he’ll earn 11.72 fantasy points, which would require only 117 combined yards or 57 combined yards and a touchdown. He’s going to blow those numbers away. As one of the few remaining true “featured backs” in the NFL, Gore will carry the ball almost constantly. 49ers QB Shaun Hill is serviceable, but he’s no rock star. This is still Gore’s offense. Did I mention that he’s a tough goal-line runner, too? Between carrying the ball 20+ times and serving as Hill’s checkdown option, I’m guessing Gore will get close to 30 touches on Sunday. That’ll easily be enough to far outgain the 11.72 fantasy points Yahoo predicts for him.

• My predictions: 105 total yards, 1-2 touchdowns

Week 1 Bust: Steelers RB Willie Parker

Parker is projected to score 12.94 fantasy points, which requires him to gain 130 combined rushing and receiving yards or gain 70 combined yards and score a touchdown. I don’t buy it. For starters, he’s been nursing a hamstring injury that limited him to exactly four carries in the preseason. It doesn’t seem likely that he’s reached game speed. Additionally, Parker is coming off the lowest-scoring season of his career (791 yards). Meanwhile, up-and-coming star Rashard Mendenhall will make his presence known in the Pittsburgh backfield, and he could cut into Parker’s carries considerably if he performs well. The worst news for Parker, though, is Pittsburgh’s week 1 opponent, the Tennessee Titans. A perennial defensive powerhouse, the Titans held Parker to 31 yards on 19 carries when they met last season. He’s not likely to get stuffed that badly again, but Parker isn’t going to post the 12.94 points Yahoo is projecting.

• My predictions: 78 yards, no touchdowns

Week 1 OMG:Browns WR Mike Furrey

Last year, Braylon Edwards couldn’t catch a cold, much less a football. (Maybe he should use those hoagie-catching gloves Andre Johnson hawks on TV.) In the offseason, Donte Stallworth got himself into a bit of legal trouble. In an effort to beef up their receiving corps a bit, the Browns have picked up veteran Mike Furrey. Furrey runs some pretty nifty routes, and he’s only a few years removed from a rock-solid season in Detroit. The Browns face the daunting Vikings defense this weekend, and old man Jamal Lewis isn’t going to see an inch of daylight. The Cleveland QB (whoever he is…the coaching staff hasn’t announced a starter yet) will have to go to the air often. Furrey is going to get his share of looks. Projected for just 32 yards, I suspect the bearded veteran to deliver a surprise performance. He’s not going to carry your team to victory single-handed, but he’ll be a solid WR3 play.

• My predictions: 75 yards

Well, procrastinators, there you have ‘em…your Beast, your Bust, and your OMG. I invite you to praise my wisdom, ridicule my ignorance, or offer your own predictions in the comment section.

I’ll gloat and/or eat crow next week when I deliver my thoughts on week 2.